By Robert Brand
Aug. 15 (Bloomberg) — South African bonds gained for the first day in three before tomorrow’s government debt auction on bets the central bank will keep borrowing costs on hold amid signs growth in Africa’s biggest economy is faltering.
The Treasury is selling 1.1 billion rand ($153.6 million) of 8.25 percent notes maturing in 2017 and 1 billion rand of 6.5 percent securities due 2041. The secondary market yield on the 2017 bonds dropped six basis points, or 0.06 percentage point, to 7.607 percent by 1:10 p.m. in Johannesburg. The yield has retreated 49 basis points in the past month.
The Reserve Bank has kept its key interest rate at a 30- year low of 5.5 percent this year to help spur consumer spending and shore up growth, even as inflation accelerated. The debt crises in the U.S. and Europe, which have driven Treasury 10- year note yields to record lows, have also clouded growth prospects of other parts of the world, Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said today.
“Slower growth and the low U.S. Treasury 10-year yield continue to be the dominant factors” driving local bond prices, Rand Merchant Bank analysts led by Theuns de Wet wrote in a research note. Investors’ expectations of slower growth were “evident in the divergent trends between bond inflows and equity inflows,” they wrote.
Foreign investors bought a net 4.7 billion rand ($654.2 million) of South African bonds in the past two weeks, while selling a net 3.7 billion rand of stocks, according to JSE Ltd. data.
Manufacturing Decline
Factory output slowed to 0.9 percent in June, from 1 percent the previous month, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa reported on Aug. 11, adding to evidence the nation’s manufacturing sector is struggling to recover. Retail-sales data due on Aug. 17 may provide further evidence of sluggish growth, the Rand Merchant Bank analysts said.
Rand Merchant Bank, a unit of South Africa’s second-biggest lender, and Standard Bank Group Ltd., the nation’s biggest bank, have revised their outlook for interest rates in the past week, seeing borrowing costs remaining unchanged until the second half of 2012.
“The significant deterioration in the external environment, and our recent downward revision of domestic growth prospects for 2012, justify a review of our” interest-rate expectations, Standard Bank analysts led by Johannesburg-based Michael Keenan wrote in a note today.
Standard Bank now expects the first rate increase to be in the third quarter of 2012, rather than the first, the analysts said. The repo rate will likely rise by a total of 2 percentage points by the end of 2013 Breitling replica watches, rather than the previously-expected 3 percentage points, they wrote.
Forward-rate agreements starting in August next year Tag heuer replica watches, which investors use to lock in borrowing costs, dropped 5.5 basis points today to 5.77 percent. The rate has declined from a 2011 high of 7.145 percent on March 3.
The debt auction starts at 11 a.m. in Pretoria and the results are expected at about 11:30 a.m., according to the Reserve Bank, which is conducting the auction on behalf of the Treasury.
–Editors: Ana Monteiro, Linda Shen
To contact the reporter on this story: Robert Brand in Cape Town at rbrand9@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Gavin Serkin at gserkin@bloomberg.net
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